London Playbook PM: Election baseball bats … and a postcard from Lyme Regis (2024)

Good afternoon.

WEDNESDAY CHEAT SHEET

— The Conservatives and Labour are pushing their core election messages hard ahead of the local elections.

— Rishi Sunak wants to talk about Rwanda deportations, while Keir Starmer prefers to discuss pensions.

— BREAKING: A powerful civil service union has launched a judicial review against the Rwanda deportation law.

— The final edition of the Playbook PM local elections tour comes from Lyme Regis, where the local Lim Dems aren’t *quite* on message about river pollution.

— Labour insisted it wouldn’t water down its workers rights pledges, despite reports otherwise.

— The possible SNP leadership contenders continue to keep us guessing.

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TOP OF THE NEWSLIST

GET OUT THE ELECTORAL BASEBALL BATS:The Conservatives and Labour are pulling out all the stops to hammer home their campaign messages ahead of the local elections tomorrow. Rishi Sunak wants to talk about deporting migrants and Keir Starmer wants to talk about threats to pensions.

Hammer into anvil:The Home Office — looking a little like a direct arm of Conservative campaign HQ —released a video this afternoonof illegal immigrants being arrested and imprisoned in preparation to jet them off to Rwanda in coming weeks. Home Secretary James Cleverly said enforcement teams were “working at pace to swiftly detain those who have no right to be here so we can get flights off the ground.”

Don’t forget:Dominic Cummingssaid immigration was“a baseball bat that just needed picking up at the right time and in the right way” ahead of the Brexit referendum. That baseball bat is being swung again right now.

Just a teaser:Government officials said no further details on the detentions, such as the number of people held or who they are, would be released for now. The planned timeline for getting flights off to Rwanda remains nine to 11 weeks, as before. But the images,alongside the newsone volunteer (albeit not a small boat arrival) went to Rwanda this week, are the pre-election content lots of Tories were hoping for.

The bad news is:The volunteer jetting off to Rwanda gota panning from Nigel Farage, the pied piper of the Conservative right. But Business Secretary Kemi Badenochtold LBC this morningthe departure “puts to bed this nonsensical myth that Rwanda was not a safe place.” She said she knew someone having “a very lovely gap year there” right now — and that’s without the British government stumping up for their food and board, as the voluntary deportation scheme offers.

On that note …the Home Office hasn’t responded to a question from Playbook PM about whether volunteers could live all-expenses-paid in Rwanda for five years (as is the volunteer policy) then return to the U.K. illegally and volunteer for another five years of paid-for scheme. Downing Street didn’t have the answer on that one either.

Another spanner in the works:In the past few minutes the FDA union for senior civil servants announced it has submitted an application for a judicial review against the Rwanda legislation. It argues civil servants who follow ministerial direction to ignore orders from the European Court of Human Rights not to deport migrants would be breaching international law — which conflicts with the civil service code.

Big, big spanner:FDA General Secretary Dave Penman said it was “not a decision that we have taken lightly. The government has had plenty of time to include an explicit provision in the act regarding breaking international law commitments which would have resolved this, but it chose not to.

In better news for Rishi Sunak …the Labour position on Rwanda appeared to come somewhat unstuck during a briefing with hacks this afternoon. A spokesperson for Keir Starmer insisted Labour would not send illegal migrants to Rwanda … and would not allow illegal migrants to enter the asylum application process … but also said claims needed to be processed quicker — despite those claims not existing under the new Rwanda law.

The Labour line:Labour wants to set up returns agreements with home nations. But the spokesperson was unable to state what would happen to Afghans in Britain as illegal arrivals when a deal cannot be done with the Taliban.

A little later on …Labour insisted it would continue to allow applications from those already in Britain, suggesting it would repeal the Illegal Migration Act banning new arrivals from ever settling here.

Another example of the confusion:Frontbencher Ellie Reeves was unable to answer on the World at One whether people the government is detaining now would be released under Labour. “We are going to have to look at what the situation is with those people if we form a government,” she said.Clip here.

One thing that was clear:The Starmer spokesperson was clear Labour would mimic the government stance of refusing to take back illegal migrants who have fled to Ireland while the EU refuses to take back those who arrive in Britain.

More where all this came from:Starmer has done a number of broadcast interviews in the past hour including one with Beth Rigby of Sky News. Lines should start dropping around now. And Cleverly is on the Sun’s “Never Mind the Ballots” show at 7 p.m. There arelines out in which he attacks Labour here. Watch out for his press up competition with Pol Ed Harry Cole.

What Starmer would much rather be talking about:The alleged threat to pensioners due to the Conservative ambition to abolish national insurance. It’s the Labour baseball bat. Starmer honed in on the issue during the final PMQs before the elections and urged the PM to rule out cutting pensions.

Yes … then no:Sunak did rule it out … then failed to rule out raising the pension age to 75 when Starmer asked. “Rishi Sunak has again failed to categorically rule out raising the retirement age to 75 to pay for his reckless and unfunded Liz Truss style £46 billion blackhole,” a gleeful Jon Ashworth said in a statement afterwards. He said Sunak was planning to “inflict yet more hardship on pensioners because of his weakness and desperation.”

Back atcha:Sunak responded with multiple attacks on Labour financial management in local councils — giving the standard namecheck to bankrupt Birmingham. He had a scathing comeback when Starmer mentioned Labour defector Dan Poulter — noting the MP stood accused of being MIA before he switched to the opposition: “I’m glad to actually see the honorable member for Central Suffolk in the House today.” Conservative MPs loved it. And he made fun of the gilded public sector pension Starmer is in line to receive.

Not much longer to go:Both parties were also spinning their election expectation management lines during the briefings. The Tories said it was tough for them because Britain has faced challenges. Labour said mayoral elections in the north will favor incumbents. Yada yada yada. Just wait for the results.

The most important spin message is for …Conservative MPs mulling dethroning Sunak if the results are bad enough. “I don’t think the prime minister’s position is under threat,” Badenoch told Sky News this morning. “I think there’s a lot of noise being made by people who want to get attention but the prime minister has the full backing of the Cabinet, he has my full backing.” Phew!

Speaking of the mayors i:Police are considering claims the Labour candidate in the West Midlands might have broken electoral law by wrongly stating he lived in the area,the Times reported.

Speaking of the mayors ii:Conservative big beasts under threat Andy Street and Ben Houchen are distancing themselves from Sunak and the Tory brand … but not from Boris Johnson.As the Guardian revealed.

Speaking of the mayors iii:London Mayor Sadiq Khan said some of what his Conservative rival Susan Hall has said or done during the contest “has been racist.” Which also looks like a baseball bat move. He made the comments to PoliticsJOE.Clip here. Team Khan is insisting he might lose … which no-one in the real world thinks is probable.

On the Hall note …theGuardian is reportingHall joined an anti-ULEZ Facebook group containing Islamophobic hate speech.

Oh and …the Evening Standardbacked Khan in the end. Which suggests it has decided which way the wind is blowing.

POSTCARD FROM LYME REGIS

SEWAGE FOR DAMAGES:Along the few kilometers the River Lim weaves between Uplyme village and the seaside town of Lyme Regis in Dorset, there are multiple points sewage can flow in. Human, animal and manufactured waste trickle in from numerous directions alongside the tributaries of fresh water. The sources include sewage works, home and agricultural slurries, and roads, to name a few.

Trolling the water:One of the culprits is a porthole tucked under a bridge right before the river meets the English channel. When an underground cathedral used for sewage storage fills faster than management firm South West Water can pump and treat it, the porthole belches the overflow out into the sea. Overflows are meant to be restricted to rain deluge events, which fill the infrastructure quicker. But the porthole — and others like it along the river — discharged for around 1,300 hours in 2023, up from around 1,200 in 2022.

Water warriors:The River Lim Action Group has been investigating pollution in the water and sounding the alarm about it. As a result, South West Water has upped its measurement and maintenance efforts, but more is needed to improve the current “moderate” cleanliness classificationfrom official watchdogs. “We’ve been getting special treatment because we’ve made such a stink,” says Vicki Elcoate, a driving member of the group. “But we need a thorough, systematic solution to all these problems.”

Issue politics:The national political parties have picked up on concerns about similar sewage problems across Britain. The Liberal Democrats were the first to weaponize it against the governing Tories in target seats. Labour is now making noise too and the Tories are upping their game. Ministershanded Dorset council £4.63 millionto tackle some of the land runoff issues affecting Poole Harbor, for example, and ministers have begun to talk tough about failing water bosses. No local Conservatives were available to talk to Playbook PM, however.

Votes for water:Constituencies around Dorset are prime Lib Dem targets in the so-called “Blue Wall” of southern Conservative heartlands. Davey is hopeful of seizing Dorset council as a staging post during local elections this week and is using the sewage issue as a battering ram. Last month he visited West Bay beach just east of Lyme Regis alongside Giles Bristow, CEO of the Surfers Against Sewage campaign. The beach had a number of pollution alerts in 2023.

A sodden shame:The pollution amounts to “hundreds of thousands of local tragedies in a national picture of shame,” Bristow tells me as we walk along the River Lim from Uplyme to the sea. Thatched cottages are dotted along a gravel path high above the river, the track bordered with bluebells and wild garlic flowers. The trail crosses the stream then opens out to a small meadow. Hidden in the trees is a South West Water treatment plant. I’m sure I detect a subtle smell of rot in the breeze.

Closed for sewage:The path becomes a single lane road flanking the river as we head towards the urban center of Lyme Regis. Bristow points out a pipe draining road surface water into the stream. There’s a sign on a bridge crossing an old fjord: “Reduced water quality is predicted. Swimming and paddling is not advised.” Children used to paddle in the area in summer, but now sewage fungus grows on the plants and rocks.

The open seas:In the center of Lyme Regis the river flows through a mill then cuts deep between the beautiful old buildings. There are a couple more bridges under the coastal road and footpath before the water hits the sea. The overflow gate sits low beneath the final bridge, its chin out of view under the water. Around the corner is Church Cliff Beach, which was stripped of its safe swimming designation because sewage was pooling at the shore.

It’s not that bad, honest:“The River Lim has good water quality but that can sometimes be impacted by periods of heavy rainfall,” a spokesperson for South West Water said. Campaigners point out 10 of the overflow discharges occurred during the summer of 2022. The spokesperson added: “The most frequent and largest change to the water quality comes from agricultural runoff from fields, upstream of any of our infrastructure.”

Message discipline:Along the coast, the cliffs at Seatown rise up then fall towards the West Bay beach Davey visited to illustrate the sewage issue.But there’s a mismatch between national and local Lib Dem messages on sewage. Nick Ireland, Lib Dem group leader on Dorset Council who stands a good chance of becoming council leader this week in what would be a historic win in a Conservative stronghold, argues voters aren’t raising the sewage on the doorstep.

Retail politics:“Across the South West it is a big thing and the politicians are jumping on the bandwagon,” Ireland tells me over lunch at the Posh Partridge cafe in Dorchester. But he insists voters are more focused on the cost of living crisis, ailing NHS services and demands for new housing.

Nevertheless:It’s clear the national Lib Dems reckon polluted water is a vote-winner — and the Greens took the Lyme Regis council seat from the Tories at a 2022 by-election, which suggests it’s resonant, at least in affected wards. “It’s an issue that has captured the imagination of the whole country,” Bristow argues. Elcoate adds: “People will vote for the parties who support efforts to clean all this up.”

**Our May forecast looks promising: POLITICO’s Energy & Climate UK Summit is coming up with exciting conversations all around the journey to net zero. While onsite registration has closed, there's still room for you online. Don't miss your chance and register today.**

DRIVETIME DEBRIEF

HAPPY INTERNATIONAL WORKERS’ DAY: Labour is insisting it won’t be watering down its workers’ rights pledges ahead of the election, amid outrage on the hard left about the FT scoop reporting the opposite. Playbook’s Sam Blewett hears from insiders the party has been consulting to ensure the mechanics don’t “scare off employers,” “bog down firms in paperwork” or accidentally draw in the self-employed.

We agreed all this stuff:A spokesperson for Keir Starmer told hacks this afternoon the apparent changes the FT wrote up, such as the ban on zero-hours contracts becoming instead a right to a contract based on the previous 12 weeks’ work, were already the plan as agreed via the arcane Labour policy process which concluded towards the end of 2023. When asked during his Usdaw conference appearance this week if there could be a further watering down of the plans, Starmer insisted: “The answer is no. There will not be.”

Nevertheless: Those close to the process, led by Deputy Labour Leader Angela Rayner, insist to Sam it must not be further sidelined, amid cautiousness from the leadership about spooking businesses ahead of the election. “Every house has someone who will benefit,” one said.

Of course … what happens more often than not in the real world is policies get watered down during the legislative process, as has happened with the leasehold and renters reform bills going through parliament right now. The Starmer spokesperson insisted: “We’ll be operating in a different way to this government on many levels.” So that’s OK.

Go dark, lord!:Sam has also picked up on some frustration at Prince of Darkness and New Labour overlordPeter Mandelson’s pro-businessinterventions over the workers’ package. A dismissive Labour frontbencher said: “Well he’s not the boss, is he? He just wants some attention.” A shadow Cabinet minister added: “If you’re going to convince Angela to do anything I’m not sure anarticle in the Sunday Timesis the way to do it … He should have gone to see her.” Ouch!

SPEAKING OF RAYNER: She’s seen no significant change in her personal poll ratings since the Tories started screaming about the past sale of her council house, according to Ipsos.

AND SPEAKING OF PERSONAL POLLING: Pollsters Techne reckon alleged Conservative leadership whisperer Penny Mordaunt will keep her Portsmouth North seat at the election despite the grim national picture for the Tories. The Conservative vote would likely reduce if she wasn’t the local candidate, the research suggests. Details here.

LATEST UPDATES IN THE SNP LEADERSHIP ELECTION: Nothing has happened. Check back tomorrow. The Labour no-confidence motion in the Scottish government didn’t pass, as expected, because the Greens backed the administration after Humza Yousaf announced his resignation.

One to watch: Scottish Labour Leader Anas Sarwar is on the ITV Peston show tonight. Details below.

GOOD QUESTION: Now the government has committed to establishing an infected blood compensation scheme within three months, there’s little chance of another tax-cutting budget before the election, since including the blood bill would blow a hole in the public finances, according to Resolution Foundation boss Torsten Bell.

Get the telly on: One to ask Jeremy Hunt about when he appears on the ITV Peston show later too. The chancellor will also pop up on Andrew Marr’s LBC show — timings below.

SOCIAL (MEDIA) AFFAIRS

NAMES THAT WERE MADE FOR SOCIAL MEDIA: One local election candidate is called Paddy Power. (h/t James Heale.)

AROUND THE WORLD

MIDDLE EAST LATEST: U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said the “time is now”for a cease-fire deal in the Israel-Hamas war as he met Israeli officials, blaming the failure to reach an agreement on Hamas — the Telegraph has more details.

UKRAINE UPDATE: Russia’s Defense Minister Sergei Shoiguordered a hike in weapons production and said deliveries need to be faster for its war against Ukraine, after the U.S. approved $61 billion in additional aid to Ukraine — Reuters has more information.

While in America: Republican House Representatives Marjorie Taylor Greene and Thomas Massie said they would force a vote on ousting Speaker Mike Johnson for working with Democrats to approve that aid package — via Bloomberg.

Also in America:Police arrested hundreds of protestors during campus raids at universities including Columbia, UCLA and theCity University of New York. Demonstrations and sit-ins over the Israel-Gaza war have been criticized for creating an hostile atmosphere —more from my POLITICO colleagues.

IN GEORGIA: Riot police allegedly beat Levan Khabeishvili, leader of the United National Movement, Georgia’s main opposition party, during a protest outside the parliament in Tbilisi in opposition to a “Kremlin-inspired” law skeptics believe would damage the Black Sea state’schances of entering the EU — the Times has a writeup.

**A message from Lloyds Banking Group:A good home is a fundamental human need, and yet the reality is there is a chronic lack of affordable housing in the UK. This means there are too many people trapped in a cycle of temporary accommodation, or living in poor, sometimes dangerous conditions. This cannot be right and it’s why we are committed to working with homelessness charity Crisis, business and community organisations across the UK and the Government, to try and end homelessness for good. Find out more.**

TONIGHT’S MEDIA ROUND

LEADING THE NEWS BULLETINS: Channel 5 News(5 p.m.) leads on the Hainault sword attack … Channel 4 News(7 p.m.) focuses on the U.S. campus protests.

Tom Swarbrick at Drive(LBC, until 6 p.m.):Independent Police Scrutiny and Oversight Board Chair Abimbola Johnson (5.05 p.m.) … foreign affairs analyst Tim Marshall (5.35 p.m.).

News Hour (Sky News, 5 p.m.):Barrister Michael Mansfield (5.45 p.m.) … Columbia Law School academic Bassam Khawaja (6.30 p.m.).

Drive with John Pienaar(Times Radio, 5 p.m.): Tory MP Kevin Foster (5.10 p.m.) … Shadow Minister without Portfolio Nick Thomas-Symonds (5.35 p.m.) … Playbook’s own Emilio Casalicchio and the Sun on Sunday’s Kate Ferguson (from 7 p.m.).

The News Agents(Podcast, drops at 5 p.m.): More in Common’s Luke Tryl.

Sky News Daily (Podcast, drops at 5 p.m.): University of New Orleans academic Lauren Lassabe Shepherd.

Tonight With Andrew Marr(LBC, 6 p.m.): Chancellor Jeremy Hunt.

Cross Question with Iain Dale(LBC, 8 p.m.): Tory MP David Simmonds … Labour MP Sam Tarry … unaffiliated peer Claire Fox … comedian Ava Vidal.

Peston (9 p.m. on Twitter, 10.45 p.m. on ITV):Jeremy Hunt … Scottish Labour Leader Anas Sarwar … Labour MP Bell Ribeiro-Addy … Deputy Lib Dem Leader Daisy Cooper.

TWEETING TOMORROW’S PAPERS TONIGHT: Allie Hodgkins-Brown.

REVIEWING THE PAPERS TONIGHT: Times Radio (10.30 p.m.): The Telegraph’s Poppy Coburn and Talk’s Peter Cardwell … Sky News (10.30 p.m. and 11.30 p.m.):The Mirror’s Kevin Maguire and the Telegraph’s Annabel Denham.

WHERE TO FIND BOOZE IN WESTMINSTER TONIGHT

CLINKING WITH CURTICE: The Institute for Government hosts a discussion on the local elections with speakers including polling guru John Curtice from 6.30 p.m.

TOMORROW’S WORLD

WHAT WE DO ALL THIS FOR: Polls open from 7 a.m. in local, regional and police commissioner elections across England and Wales, as well as the Blackpool South parliamentary by-election.

ECON ARTISTS: The OECD will release its latest economic outlook forecasts at 7 a.m. Details here.

WHAT THE GOVERNMENT WANTS TO TALK ABOUT: U.K. tanks taking part in NATO drills.

IN THE COMMONS: MPs sit from 9.30 a.m. with business and trade questions, then the business statement and backbench debates.

DAY IN COURT: An employment fight between the government and a former civil servant who blew the whistle on the chaotic Afghan withdrawal will be heard in court. Details of her argument here. The case is set to run until May 20.

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ANY OTHER BUSINESS

PACKED LUNCH OR PALACE LUNCH: Subject to change, here are thelunchmenus on the estate tomorrow:The Debate:Roast gammon bap; green tea sea bream on noodles with watercress, rocket and pine nuts; spinach and feta pie … Terrace Cafeteria:Breaded chicken with rice and satay sauce; salmon Niçoise; meatballs with wholemeal pasta …River Restaurant: Mushroom sausage cassoulet with fried potatoes and rustic bread; burger and fries; smoked salmon, spinach and horseradish quiche with potato wedges and salad.

COMING ATTRACTIONS: Labour Deputy Leader Angela Rayner is among MPs speaking on the leftie discussion stage at the Glasto festival this summer. Full rundown here for those who go to music festivals to … chat small boats and trans liberation.

SIMPLE QUESTIONS PLAYBOOK PM CAN’T GET ANSWERS TO:When will Rishi Sunak fill hisvacant anti-corruption adviserrole? … Did Steve Tuckwelltell constituents, filmed signing a petition about fish and chips, that their data would be used for other campaign spam? … When will Boris Johnson start producinghis own GB News content?

WHAT I’VE BEEN READING: In the New Statesman, George Eaton explores WTF Starmerism is … if it’s even something.

ON THIS DAY IN POLITICS: On May 1 2007 Labour won a whopping landslide. Deets here.

WRITING PLAYBOOK TOMORROW MORNING: Dan Bloom.

THANKS TO: My editor Rosa Prince, reporter Noah Keate and the POLITICO production team for making it look nice.

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